A space-time conditional intensity model for infectious disease occurence
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چکیده
A space-time conditional intensity model for infectious disease occurence Summary. A novel point process model continuous in space-time is proposed for infectious disease data. Modelling is based on the conditional intensity function (CIF) and extends an additive-multiplicative CIF model previously proposed for discrete space epidemic modelling. Estimation is performed by means of full maximum likelihood and a simulation algorithm is presented. The particular application of interest is the stochastic modelling of the transmission dynamics of the two most common meningococcal antigenic sequence types observed in Germany 2002–2008. Altogether, the proposed methodology represents a comprehensive and universal regression framework for the modelling, simulation and inference of self-exciting spatio-temporal point processes based on the CIF. Application is promoted by an implementation in the R package RLadyBug.
منابع مشابه
Web - based Supplementary Materials for “ A space - time conditional intensity model for invasive meningococcal disease occurence ”
Sebastian Meyer1,2, Johannes Elias3, and Michael Höhle4,2 1Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München, Germany 2Department of Statistics, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, München, Germany 3German Reference Centre for Meningococci, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany 4Department for Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany
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تاریخ انتشار 2010